Estimates for Bahia, Brazil

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Brazil These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods or our paper for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-11-14

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by city


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated cases with a date of infection on the 2020-09-23) in Brazil, stratified by region, can be summarised by whether cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Regions with fewer than 40 cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey).

State summary

Summary (estimates as of the 2020-09-23)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-09-23) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the expected change in daily confirmed cases, the effective reproduction number, the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time), and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Estimate
New confirmed cases by infection date 1346 (1138 – 1522)
Expected change in daily cases Likely decreasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 (0.9 – 1)
Doubling/halving time (days) -120 (110 – -38)
Adjusted R-squared 0.29 (0.00067 – 0.62)

Confirmed cases, their estimated date of infection, and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 2: A.) Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-23 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Time-varying rate of growth and doubling time


Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of growth, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (when negative this corresponds to the halving time), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-23. Light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Data availability

Limitations

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 4: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-09-23 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-23 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 6: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-23 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-23 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 8: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-09-23 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-09-23)

Table 2: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-09-23) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
BA-Abaré 8 (1 – 20) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.5 – 3.2) 4.1 (1.5 – -5.6)
BA-Acajutiba 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.1 – 2.6) 8.6 (1.7 – -2.9)
BA-Adustina 3 (0 – 7) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.3 – 3.8) 1.2 (1 – -1.4)
BA-Aiquara 6 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.4 – 2.5) 5.6 (1.9 – -5.5)
BA-Alagoinhas 10 (5 – 14) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1) -6.3 (80 – -3)
BA-Alcobaça 8 (1 – 18) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 13 (2.5 – -4.4)
BA-Almadina 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.6) 8.4 (1.9 – -3.4)
BA-Amargosa 6 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.9) 12 (2.6 – -4.8)
BA-Amélia Rodrigues 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 13 (2.4 – -3.6)
BA-América Dourada 4 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.1) 7.5 (1.5 – -2.4)
BA-Anagé 5 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.4) 7 (2.3 – -6.3)
BA-Andorinha 5 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 2.3 (0.1 – 3.9) 1.1 (0.51 – -0.98)
BA-Angical 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.5) 7.3 (1.7 – -2.9)
BA-Antas 16 (8 – 23) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 1.8) 7.4 (3.2 – -27)
BA-Antônio Cardoso 5 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.5) 7.3 (2 – -4)
BA-Antônio Gonçalves 4 (0 – 8) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.4 – 2.9) 5.7 (1.7 – -3.6)
BA-Aporá 5 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.3 – 3.6) 4.7 (1.4 – -2.7)
BA-Apuarema 7 (1 – 13) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 13 (2.9 – -6.2)
BA-Araças 10 (3 – 15) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.8 – 2.5) 4.8 (2.2 – -24)
BA-Aracatu 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.5) 7.5 (2.3 – -5)
BA-Araci 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.1) 9.4 (2.5 – -4.7)
BA-Aramari 3 (0 – 5) Unsure 1.9 (0.3 – 3.6) -3.6 (1.2 – -1.3)
BA-Arataca 6 (0 – 13) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.4) 8.7 (2.1 – -3.6)
BA-Aratuípe 5 (1 – 9) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 6.5 (2 – -5.3)
BA-Aurelino Leal 6 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.4 – 3.3) 6.1 (1.4 – -2.9)
BA-Baianópolis 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.3) 7.3 (1.9 – -3.9)
BA-Banzaê 8 (2 – 14) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2.1) 8.7 (2.7 – -6)
BA-Barra 6 (2 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2) 11 (2.7 – -5.1)
BA-Barra do Choça 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.4) 9.5 (2.1 – -3.2)
BA-Barra do Rocha 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.6) 7.1 (1.7 – -3.3)
BA-Barreiras 29 (19 – 39) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -68 (10 – -7.7)
BA-Barro Alto 5 (0 – 13) Unsure 1.3 (0.2 – 2.2) 11 (2.1 – -3.6)
BA-Barro Preto 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.1) 4.2 (1.4 – -4)
BA-Barrocas 5 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3.3) 19 (1.7 – -2)
BA-Belmonte 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 6.3 (1.7 – -4.2)
BA-Belo Campo 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.7 (0.5 – 2.8) 5 (1.6 – -4.5)
BA-Biritinga 4 (1 – 7) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.7 – 2.8) 4.1 (1.5 – -5.9)
BA-Boa Nova 7 (1 – 13) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2) 12 (2.8 – -5.2)
BA-Boa Vista do Tupim 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 2 (0.3 – 3.7) -0.24 (1.1 – -0.03)
BA-Bom Jesus da Lapa 13 (4 – 19) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.9) 14 (3.6 – -7.9)
BA-Bom Jesus da Serra 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.8 (0.4 – 3.5) 4.9 (1.1 – -2)
BA-Bonito 5 (0 – 13) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.4 – 4.1) -5.2 (1.1 – -1.3)
BA-Brejões 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.1 (0.7 – 4) 1.9 (1 – -1.8)
BA-Brumado 31 (20 – 40) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 20 (6 – -17)
BA-Buerarema 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 10 (2.2 – -4)
BA-Buritirama 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.5 (0.2 – 2.7) 8.3 (1.7 – -2.7)
BA-Caatiba 10 (4 – 15) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.9 – 2.2) 5.3 (2.3 – -27)
BA-Cabaceiras do Paraguaçu 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 2.9) 5 (1.5 – -3.4)
BA-Cachoeira 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.7 (0.2 – 3) 2.1 (1.5 – -2.4)
BA-Caculé 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.7) 7.1 (1.7 – -2.7)
BA-Caetanos 6 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) 42 (3.6 – -4.1)
BA-Caetité 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 2.8) 5.2 (1.6 – -4)
BA-Cafarnaum 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.2) 11 (2.5 – -4.2)
BA-Cairu 9 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.7) 12 (3.6 – -8.5)
BA-Camacan 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.5) -35 (4.6 – -3.5)
BA-Camaçari 22 (13 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 22 (5.9 – -11)
BA-Camamu 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.5) 8.8 (1.7 – -2.5)
BA-Campo Alegre de Lourdes 5 (0 – 13) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3.2) 5.5 (1.4 – -2.9)
BA-Campo Formoso 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 18 (2.5 – -3.3)
BA-Canápolis 3 (0 – 7) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.4 – 3) 5.5 (1.5 – -3.6)
BA-Canarana 7 (1 – 12) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2) 9.8 (2.9 – -6.1)
BA-Canavieiras 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.1) 11 (2.2 – -3.6)
BA-Candeal 5 (1 – 12) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.5 – 2.9) 4.5 (1.5 – -6.1)
BA-Candeias 9 (3 – 13) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.3) -9.8 (11 – -3.4)
BA-Cândido Sales 8 (1 – 14) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -43 (5.8 – -4.5)
BA-Cansanção 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.4) 6.8 (1.8 – -4)
BA-Canudos 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2 (0.4 – 3.5) 5.9 (1.1 – -1.8)
BA-Capela do Alto Alegre 4 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.4 – 3.5) 4.2 (1.2 – -2.6)
BA-Capim Grosso 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.6) 36 (3.5 – -4.4)
BA-Caravelas 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2) 17 (2.6 – -3.9)
BA-Cardeal da Silva 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.8) 7.8 (1.7 – -3.3)
BA-Carinhanha 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.2) 11 (2.3 – -4)
BA-Casa Nova 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.2) 11 (2.4 – -4)
BA-Castro Alves 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.2) 10 (2.2 – -4.5)
BA-Catolândia 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.6 – 3.3) 3.5 (1.1 – -3)
BA-Catu 11 (4 – 16) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.5) -1000 (5.2 – -5.6)
BA-Central 7 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.8 (0.3 – 3.3) 5.5 (1.5 – -3.6)
BA-Cícero Dantas 6 (3 – 11) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) 72 (3.4 – -3.9)
BA-Coaraci 14 (6 – 20) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 14 (4.1 – -8.8)
BA-Cocos 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.8 (0.2 – 3.1) 1.8 (1.2 – -2.4)
BA-Conceição da Feira 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.6) 6.6 (1.8 – -3.2)
BA-Conceição do Almeida 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.5) 7.3 (1.7 – -3.8)
BA-Conceição do Coité 29 (16 – 39) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 49 (7.7 – -12)
BA-Conceição do Jacuípe 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.4) 7.2 (1.9 – -4.2)
BA-Conde 6 (0 – 13) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.2) 12 (2.4 – -3.9)
BA-Coração de Maria 4 (0 – 7) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.4 – 2.9) 4.7 (1.6 – -5)
BA-Cordeiros 5 (0 – 14) Unsure 2.1 (0.2 – 3.8) 2 (0.8 – -1.2)
BA-Coribe 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.4) 7.2 (1.8 – -3)
BA-Coronel João Sá 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.4 (0.1 – 2.6) 7.4 (1.6 – -3.3)
BA-Correntina 6 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 40 (3.6 – -4.5)
BA-Cotegipe 4 (1 – 8) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 2.9) 4.7 (1.6 – -3.8)
BA-Crisópolis 4 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.2 – 4) -5.3 (1.1 – -1)
BA-Cristópolis 5 (0 – 14) Unsure 1.9 (0.2 – 3.7) 5.1 (1.3 – -2.9)
BA-Cruz das Almas 5 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.5 – 2.7) 5.7 (1.9 – -5.6)
BA-Curaçá 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.6) 8.9 (1.6 – -2.6)
BA-Dário Meira 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.5) 8.4 (1.9 – -3.4)
BA-Dias d’Ávila 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 36 (4.1 – -5.7)
BA-Dom Macedo Costa 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.6 (0.2 – 2.8) 6.7 (1.7 – -3.3)
BA-Elísio Medrado 3 (0 – 7) Likely increasing 2.1 (0.3 – 3.7) 3.8 (1.2 – -3.4)
BA-Encruzilhada 6 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.3 – 2.1) 17 (2.5 – -3.2)
BA-Entre Rios 6 (1 – 12) Unsure 1.5 (0.2 – 2.5) 9.1 (2 – -4)
BA-Esplanada 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.4) 8.3 (1.8 – -3.2)
BA-Euclides da Cunha 6 (2 – 11) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.1) 8.3 (2.3 – -5.3)
BA-Eunápolis 17 (9 – 24) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 39 (5.4 – -8)
BA-Fátima 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 0.8 (0.2 – 1.5) -7.3 (3.7 – -1.9)
BA-Feira da Mata 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.8 (0.3 – 3.2) -11 (1.2 – -2.5)
BA-Feira de Santana 54 (36 – 67) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -53 (16 – -10)
BA-Filadélfia 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2) 16 (2.7 – -3.7)
BA-Firmino Alves 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 8.1 (1.8 – -3.2)
BA-Floresta Azul 4 (1 – 7) Unsure 1.1 (0.4 – 1.7) 35 (2.8 – -3.4)
BA-Formosa do Rio Preto 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.2) 7.6 (2.1 – -4.4)
BA-Gandu 7 (1 – 12) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 1.8) 14 (3.3 – -6.5)
BA-Gavião 6 (0 – 14) Unsure 1.7 (0 – 3.3) 1.9 (1.2 – -2.1)
BA-Glória 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.7) 27 (3.2 – -4.1)
BA-Gongogi 5 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.6 – 2.5) 7.5 (2.1 – -3.9)
BA-Governador Mangabeira 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.8 (0.2 – 3.5) 4.7 (1.2 – -2.7)
BA-Guanambi 12 (3 – 17) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 12 (3.3 – -7.5)
BA-Guaratinga 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 7.7 (2.1 – -4.7)
BA-Heliópolis 4 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.3 – 3.4) 4 (1.3 – -3.3)
BA-Iaçu 5 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3.3) 6.6 (1.6 – -2.9)
BA-Ibicaraí 10 (3 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.9) 28 (3.6 – -5.1)
BA-Ibicuí 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.5) 5.7 (1.8 – -5.1)
BA-Ibirapitanga 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 20 (2.7 – -3.1)
BA-Ibirapuã 5 (1 – 10) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.8 – 2.4) 4.6 (1.9 – -8.8)
BA-Ibirataia 7 (1 – 12) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.9) 14 (3.2 – -5.8)
BA-Ibititá 6 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 1.9) 12 (2.6 – -4.5)
BA-Ibotirama 5 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.3 – 3.2) 5 (1.4 – -3.2)
BA-Igaporã 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 2.2 (0.2 – 4.3) -1.8 (0.7 – -1.1)
BA-Igrapiúna 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 6.8 (1.6 – -3.3)
BA-Iguaí 4 (0 – 7) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.1) -12 (1.3 – -3.5)
BA-Ilhéus 32 (20 – 43) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 30 (6.5 – -13)
BA-Inhambupe 10 (2 – 15) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 12 (3.4 – -7.4)
BA-Ipecaetá 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.6) 5.8 (1.6 – -3)
BA-Ipiaú 7 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 18 (3.1 – -5)
BA-Ipirá 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 6.6 (1.8 – -3.6)
BA-Iraquara 3 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.8 (0.4 – 3.4) 5.3 (1.2 – -2.5)
BA-Irará 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.5) -6.3 (1.5 – -3)
BA-Irecê 24 (15 – 33) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.2) -33 (10 – -6.3)
BA-Itabela 8 (1 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.8) 20 (3.6 – -5.6)
BA-Itaberaba 7 (1 – 12) Unsure 0.9 (0.4 – 1.3) -45 (4.5 – -3.9)
BA-Itabuna 45 (30 – 57) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -18 (32 – -6.9)
BA-Itacaré 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.8 (0.2 – 3.2) 4.4 (1.3 – -3.6)
BA-Itagi 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.4) 8 (2.2 – -4.9)
BA-Itagibá 5 (1 – 8) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.1) 12 (2.5 – -4)
BA-Itaguaçu da Bahia 4 (0 – 8) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.3 – 3.3) 4.4 (1.5 – -4.7)
BA-Itaju do Colônia 7 (2 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.9) 12 (3.3 – -6.3)
BA-Itajuípe 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.2) 11 (2.4 – -3.9)
BA-Itamaraju 12 (6 – 19) Unsure 1.2 (0.7 – 1.6) 22 (4.5 – -7.8)
BA-Itamari 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.7 (0.5 – 2.6) 4.9 (1.6 – -4.9)
BA-Itambé 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.7) 26 (3.5 – -4.7)
BA-Itanhém 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.3) 6.7 (2 – -5)
BA-Itaparica 5 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.6 – 2.7) 4.9 (1.6 – -5.9)
BA-Itapé 5 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.7 (0.2 – 3.1) -5 (1.3 – -2)
BA-Itapebi 4 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.9) 7.6 (1.5 – -3)
BA-Itapetinga 14 (7 – 18) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.4) 130 (6.2 – -6.6)
BA-Itapicuru 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 11 (2.1 – -3.6)
BA-Itapitanga 10 (3 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 28 (3.7 – -5.7)
BA-Itaquara 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.7 (0.2 – 2.9) 8.1 (1.4 – -2.4)
BA-Itarantim 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.6 – 2.9) 5.9 (1.7 – -3.7)
BA-Itatim 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.6 (0.5 – 2.7) 5.8 (1.7 – -3.5)
BA-Itiruçu 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.7) 5.9 (1.6 – -3.2)
BA-Itiúba 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 7.3 (1.9 – -4)
BA-Itororó 8 (3 – 13) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 120 (4.6 – -5.4)
BA-Ituberá 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.3 – 2.2) 14 (2.1 – -3.5)
BA-Jaborandi 4 (1 – 8) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.2) 6.8 (2.1 – -4.9)
BA-Jacobina 8 (3 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.5) -540 (4.4 – -4.6)
BA-Jaguaquara 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.4) -37 (5.9 – -4.4)
BA-Jaguarari 6 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 50 (3.7 – -4.2)
BA-Jaguaripe 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.2) 12 (2.1 – -3)
BA-Jandaíra 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.7 (0.4 – 2.9) 5.4 (1.6 – -4)
BA-Jequié 21 (14 – 29) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 22 (6 – -12)
BA-Jeremoabo 6 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.1) 9.8 (2.3 – -5.1)
BA-Jiquiriçá 7 (2 – 13) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 7.6 (2.5 – -7.1)
BA-Jitaúna 7 (1 – 14) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 2.8) 4.9 (1.8 – -6.1)
BA-João Dourado 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2) 12 (2.8 – -5)
BA-Juazeiro 23 (13 – 30) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 34 (6.2 – -9.4)
BA-Jucuruçu 9 (4 – 15) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.7 – 2.2) 9.3 (2.9 – -8.4)
BA-Jussara 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.3) 15 (2.1 – -2.9)
BA-Jussari 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.7 (0.2 – 2.9) 4.4 (1.2 – -2.3)
BA-Lafaiete Coutinho 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 2.8) 6.4 (1.6 – -3.9)
BA-Laje 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.5) 11 (2.2 – -3.4)
BA-Lajedão 8 (0 – 19) Unsure 1.7 (0.4 – 2.9) 5 (1.5 – -3.5)
BA-Lajedo do Tabocal 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.9 (0.3 – 3.6) 4 (1.2 – -3)
BA-Lapão 10 (5 – 16) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.7) 26 (4.1 – -6.6)
BA-Lauro de Freitas 36 (25 – 46) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 19 (6.4 – -20)
BA-Lençóis 3 (0 – 6) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 2.9) 4.9 (1.6 – -4.5)
BA-Licínio de Almeida 8 (0 – 20) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.5) 11 (2 – -3.4)
BA-Livramento de Nossa Senhora 7 (3 – 12) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2) 13 (3.1 – -4.9)
BA-Luís Eduardo Magalhães 23 (14 – 29) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) -350 (7.9 – -7.5)
BA-Macarani 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.1 (0.3 – 1.8) -300 (2.8 – -2.9)
BA-Madre de Deus 8 (2 – 14) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.4) -11 (9.6 – -3.3)
BA-Mairi 5 (1 – 9) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.7 – 2.9) 4.9 (1.7 – -5.9)
BA-Malhada 7 (0 – 20) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.5 – 3.3) 4.2 (1.3 – -4.9)
BA-Malhada de Pedras 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.8 (0.1 – 3.3) 8.2 (1.1 – -1.7)
BA-Manoel Vitorino 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.3) 6.5 (1.6 – -3.4)
BA-Maracás 8 (3 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.5 – 1.4) -25 (6.7 – -4.3)
BA-Maragogipe 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.1) 8 (2.2 – -4.7)
BA-Maraú 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 2) 16 (2.3 – -3.5)
BA-Marcionílio Souza 4 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.4 – 4) -4.9 (0.7 – -0.8)
BA-Mascote 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.3) 16 (2.3 – -3.4)
BA-Mata de São João 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.3) 10 (2.3 – -4.2)
BA-Medeiros Neto 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2) 12 (2.6 – -4.4)
BA-Miguel Calmon 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 8.7 (1.9 – -3.5)
BA-Milagres 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.8 (0.3 – 3) 4.4 (1.5 – -4.4)
BA-Mirante 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.1) 20 (2.6 – -3.2)
BA-Monte Santo 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.5) 7.4 (1.8 – -3.2)
BA-Morro do Chapéu 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.4) 13 (1.7 – -2.8)
BA-Mucuri 8 (1 – 15) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 130 (4 – -4.2)
BA-Mulungu do Morro 5 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.3 (0.1 – 2.4) 2100 (2.3 – -2.2)
BA-Mundo Novo 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.6 (0.1 – 2.8) -6.1 (1.7 – -3.4)
BA-Muniz Ferreira 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.8 (0.3 – 2.9) 4.2 (1.5 – -4.7)
BA-Muquém de São Francisco 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.3 – 4.1) 3.4 (0.79 – -1.8)
BA-Muritiba 7 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2 (0.4 – 3.7) -8.6 (1.3 – -2.9)
BA-Mutuípe 6 (0 – 9) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 6.7 (2.3 – -6.3)
BA-Nazaré 9 (3 – 15) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 26 (4.4 – -5.7)
BA-Nilo Peçanha 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.7 (0.2 – 2.9) 12 (1.4 – -2)
BA-Nordestina 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.8 (0.4 – 3.2) 4.4 (1.3 – -3.6)
BA-Nova Canaã 7 (0 – 17) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.6) 5.4 (1.6 – -4.3)
BA-Nova Fátima 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.1 – 2.3) 15 (1.8 – -2.4)
BA-Nova Ibiá 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3.2) 5.3 (1.5 – -3.9)
BA-Nova Itarana 4 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.5 – 3.4) 4.4 (1.5 – -3.3)
BA-Nova Soure 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.6 – 3.2) 5 (1.4 – -3.4)
BA-Nova Viçosa 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 18 (3.2 – -4.5)
BA-Novo Triunfo 5 (0 – 14) Likely increasing 2.1 (0.3 – 3.8) 1.6 (1.1 – -1.9)
BA-Olindina 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.8) 27 (2.8 – -3.4)
BA-Oliveira dos Brejinhos 4 (0 – 12) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.3 – 4.6) 5.2 (0.97 – -1.3)
BA-Ouriçangas 4 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.9 (0.2 – 3.4) 4.6 (0.93 – -1.7)
BA-Ourolândia 11 (5 – 16) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.4) 31000 (5.4 – -5.6)
BA-Palmas de Monte Alto 4 (0 – 8) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.5 – 2.8) 5.5 (1.7 – -4.7)
BA-Paramirim 4 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.3 – 3.5) 4.5 (1.2 – -2.9)
BA-Paratinga 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 13 (2.1 – -3.1)
BA-Paripiranga 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1 (0.2 – 1.8) -6.7 (4.6 – -2)
BA-Pau Brasil 10 (3 – 16) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 1.9) 11 (3 – -7)
BA-Paulo Afonso 12 (4 – 19) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.5) -190 (6 – -5.4)
BA-Pé de Serra 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.5) 5.7 (1.6 – -3.7)
BA-Pedro Alexandre 6 (0 – 16) Likely increasing 2 (0.3 – 3.7) 5.3 (1.2 – -2.3)
BA-Pindobaçu 4 (0 – 7) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.3 – 2.5) 5.9 (1.9 – -4.7)
BA-Pintadas 7 (2 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.9) 21 (3.4 – -5.1)
BA-Piraí do Norte 5 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.3) 8.6 (2.3 – -4.5)
BA-Piripá 5 (0 – 15) Unsure 2.1 (0.2 – 3.9) -6 (0.75 – -1)
BA-Piritiba 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.8) 6 (1.6 – -3.5)
BA-Planaltino 4 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.9 (0.2 – 3.3) 2.4 (0.8 – -0.85)
BA-Planalto 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 150 (3.2 – -3.2)
BA-Poções 7 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) 620 (4.4 – -4)
BA-Pojuca 7 (2 – 11) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 1.9) 11 (2.8 – -6.3)
BA-Porto Seguro 25 (15 – 32) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -160 (9.4 – -8.6)
BA-Potiraguá 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.7) 6.6 (1.7 – -3.5)
BA-Prado 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 2.1) 12 (2.5 – -4.6)
BA-Presidente Dutra 6 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.3) 9.7 (2.4 – -4.9)
BA-Presidente Jânio Quadros 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.6 (0.3 – 2.6) 7.2 (1.8 – -3.4)
BA-Presidente Tancredo Neves 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.3) 7.5 (1.8 – -3.2)
BA-Queimadas 6 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.7 (0.3 – 3.3) 11 (1.2 – -1.6)
BA-Quijingue 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.8 (0.4 – 3.3) 4.3 (1.5 – -4.5)
BA-Rafael Jambeiro 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 2 (0.3 – 3.8) 14 (1.5 – -1.8)
BA-Remanso 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1 (0.2 – 1.6) -24 (3.1 – -2.4)
BA-Retirolândia 6 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2) 12 (2.9 – -6)
BA-Riachão das Neves 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.3) 7.5 (2.2 – -5)
BA-Riachão do Jacuípe 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 26 (3.4 – -4.7)
BA-Riacho de Santana 4 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.3 – 3) 1.9 (1.4 – -2.9)
BA-Ribeira do Amparo 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 2.9) 4.5 (1.4 – -3.3)
BA-Ribeira do Pombal 6 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 21 (3.1 – -4.6)
BA-Ribeirão do Largo 3 (0 – 5) Unsure 1.2 (0.3 – 2.1) 29 (2.4 – -3)
BA-Rio Real 4 (1 – 8) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.2) 16 (2.7 – -3.5)
BA-Ruy Barbosa 4 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.2) 7.5 (1.9 – -4.2)
BA-Salinas da Margarida 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.8) 90 (3.1 – -3.3)
BA-Salvador 158 (124 – 197) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -16 (-59 – -8.7)
BA-Santa Bárbara 3 (1 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.4 – 2.6) 5.3 (1.7 – -4.4)
BA-Santa Brígida 6 (0 – 14) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.5) 9.3 (1.9 – -3)
BA-Santa Cruz Cabrália 9 (4 – 14) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.8) 12 (3.4 – -8)
BA-Santa Cruz da Vitória 6 (1 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.6 – 2.3) 8.6 (2.5 – -5.6)
BA-Santa Inês 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 2.2 (0.4 – 3.9) 1.7 (1.2 – -3.1)
BA-Santa Luzia 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.4) 9.6 (2.1 – -3.8)
BA-Santa Maria da Vitória 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.4 (0.8 – 2.1) 8.2 (2.6 – -7.2)
BA-Santa Rita de Cássia 8 (3 – 13) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.5) 27 (4 – -5.5)
BA-Santa Teresinha 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 2.1) 24 (2.2 – -3)
BA-Santaluz 8 (3 – 14) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 66 (3.8 – -4.6)
BA-Santana 5 (0 – 15) Unsure 1.9 (0.4 – 3.4) -3 (1.4 – -1.4)
BA-Santanópolis 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 1.4 (0.7 – 2.1) 13 (2.8 – -4.8)
BA-Santo Amaro 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.4) 7.7 (1.8 – -3)
BA-Santo Antônio de Jesus 18 (8 – 24) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.7) 16 (4.6 – -11)
BA-Santo Estêvão 7 (0 – 14) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.1) 12 (2.4 – -3.9)
BA-São Desidério 9 (2 – 14) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.8) 10 (3.2 – -8.6)
BA-São Domingos 5 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.8 (0.3 – 3.1) 4.5 (1.4 – -3.9)
BA-São Felipe 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.5) 10 (2.1 – -3.2)
BA-São Félix 10 (4 – 16) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.5) -94 (5.5 – -5)
BA-São Félix do Coribe 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.8) 24 (2.9 – -3.9)
BA-São Francisco do Conde 8 (2 – 12) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.6) 20 (4.1 – -6.4)
BA-São Gabriel 4 (1 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.5 – 2.6) 6 (1.9 – -4.4)
BA-São Gonçalo dos Campos 5 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.4) 9.4 (2.1 – -3.5)
BA-São José da Vitória 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.3) 26 (2.1 – -2.7)
BA-São Miguel das Matas 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.4) 7 (1.6 – -3.4)
BA-São Sebastião do Passé 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.7) 24 (3.5 – -4.9)
BA-Sapeaçu 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.1) 4.1 (1.4 – -4.5)
BA-Sátiro Dias 4 (1 – 7) Unsure 1.5 (0.5 – 2.4) 8.9 (2.1 – -3.7)
BA-Saubara 5 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.9 (0.2 – 3.5) 4.3 (1.2 – -2.8)
BA-Saúde 6 (0 – 15) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.3 – 3.2) 4.6 (1.4 – -3.2)
BA-Seabra 8 (2 – 13) Unsure 1.1 (0.6 – 1.7) 32 (3.6 – -4.7)
BA-Senhor do Bonfim 7 (1 – 11) Unsure 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 12 (3 – -5.9)
BA-Sento Sé 5 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.5 (0.4 – 2.5) 8.2 (1.8 – -3.3)
BA-Serra do Ramalho 5 (0 – 15) Unsure 2 (0.1 – 3.5) 0.84 (0.88 – -1.5)
BA-Serra Preta 6 (0 – 16) Unsure 1.5 (0.2 – 2.5) 8.6 (1.9 – -3.1)
BA-Serrinha 7 (2 – 13) Unsure 1 (0.4 – 1.5) -64 (4.7 – -4)
BA-Serrolândia 5 (1 – 10) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.5 – 3.2) 4.4 (1.6 – -5.1)
BA-Simões Filho 14 (6 – 22) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.8) 15 (3.9 – -10)
BA-Sítio do Quinto 4 (0 – 8) Likely increasing 1.6 (0.5 – 2.6) 6.5 (1.8 – -3.7)
BA-Sobradinho 4 (1 – 8) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.3 – 3) 4.3 (1.5 – -4.3)
BA-Souto Soares 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.9 (0.6 – 3.3) 4.1 (1.5 – -5.3)
BA-Tanquinho 4 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 1.8 (0.4 – 3.2) 4.1 (1.3 – -3.5)
BA-Taperoá 5 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 1.7 (0.4 – 2.8) 4.5 (1.5 – -4)
BA-Tapiramutá 5 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.9 (0.4 – 3.5) 4.6 (1.3 – -3.5)
BA-Teixeira de Freitas 48 (34 – 58) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 100 (10 – -14)
BA-Teodoro Sampaio 6 (0 – 15) Unsure 2.1 (0.1 – 3.7) 1.3 (0.97 – -1.1)
BA-Teofilândia 3 (0 – 6) Unsure 1.4 (0.3 – 2.3) 9.3 (2 – -3.6)
BA-Teolândia 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.2) 12 (2.4 – -3.8)
BA-Terra Nova 5 (0 – 12) Unsure 1.8 (0.4 – 3.5) -9.9 (1.3 – -3)
BA-Tremedal 9 (0 – 22) Likely increasing 2 (0.6 – 3.6) 3.2 (1.2 – -9.6)
BA-Tucano 6 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.1 (0.5 – 1.7) -190 (3.6 – -3.7)
BA-Uauá 6 (0 – 16) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.7) 11 (1.7 – -2.5)
BA-Ubaitaba 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2.1) 12 (2.3 – -4.1)
BA-Ubatã 6 (0 – 11) Unsure 1.2 (0.4 – 1.7) 60 (3.7 – -4.1)
BA-Uibaí 4 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.6 (0.2 – 2.6) 5.8 (1.4 – -2.9)
BA-Umburanas 4 (0 – 8) Unsure 1.4 (0.4 – 2.5) 7.8 (1.9 – -3.8)
BA-Una 4 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.4 – 2.4) 16 (2.1 – -3)
BA-Urandi 6 (0 – 11) Likely increasing 2 (0.5 – 3.6) 6.7 (1.4 – -2.3)
BA-Uruçuca 7 (1 – 11) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.8 – 2.3) 5.8 (2.1 – -9.9)
BA-Valença 7 (3 – 13) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -21 (6.7 – -4)
BA-Valente 9 (3 – 15) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.7) 23 (3.5 – -4.9)
BA-Várzea da Roça 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.9 (0.2 – 3.6) -1.5 (1 – -1.1)
BA-Varzedo 5 (0 – 10) Likely increasing 2.1 (0.3 – 3.6) 2 (0.95 – -1.1)
BA-Vera Cruz 3 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.7 (0.4 – 2.9) 4.2 (1.4 – -3.4)
BA-Vereda 5 (0 – 10) Unsure 1.2 (0.5 – 1.9) 28 (3 – -3.9)
BA-Vitória da Conquista 73 (53 – 86) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1.1) -33 (32 – -10)
BA-Wanderley 4 (0 – 7) Unsure 1.6 (0.2 – 2.7) 5.1 (1.5 – -3)
BA-Wenceslau Guimarães 5 (1 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.5 – 2.1) 16 (2.4 – -3.3)
BA-Xique-Xique 5 (0 – 9) Unsure 1.3 (0.3 – 2.2) 12 (2.2 – -3.5)

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